• Ralf Zahn, Nicolas Werner, Ulrich Gerckens, Axel Linke, Horst Sievert, Philipp Kahlert, Rainer Hambrecht, Stefan Sack, Mohamed Abdel-Wahab, Ellen Hoffmann, Uwe Zeymer, Steffen Schneider, and German Transcatheter Aortic Valve Interventions—Registry investigators.
• Abteilung für Kardiologie, Herzzentrum Ludwigshafen, Ludwigshafen, Germany.
• Heart. 2017 Dec 1; 103 (24): 1970-1976.

ObjectivesTranscatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) has been implemented into the care of elderly patients suffering from severe symptomatic aortic stenosis. However, data on long-term follow-up are sparse and predictors of long-term mortality need to be evaluated to better select patients. Therefore, we aimed to analyse predictors of 5-year mortality after TAVI.MethodsWe analysed data from the German Transcatheter Aortic Valve Interventions-Registry. Each of the 27 participating hospitals agreed to include all consecutive TAVI patients at their institution. Out of 1444 patients treated with TAVI, 1378 patients had a follow-up of at least 4.5 years (completeness 95.4%). Endpoint for this analysis was 5-year survival. Cox regression analysis was used to determine risk factors associated with this endpoint.ResultsPatients who died were compared with survivors. The two groups showed multiple differences in patient characteristics, indications for interventions, preinterventional, as well as interventional characteristics and postinterventional events. Calculated 1-year mortality was 21.8% and 5-year mortality 59.1%. A higher logistic EuroScore was associated with a lower 5-year survival, being 45.5% in patients with a logistic EuroScore of <20%, 34.5% in those with 20% to 40% and 28.4% in patients with a logistic EuroScore >40%. Cox proportional hazard analysis revealed the following independent predictors of 5-year mortality: female gender (HR =0.66, 95% CI 0.56 to 0.77, p<0.0001), renal failure (HR=1.43, 95% CI 1.22 to 1.69, p<0.0001), prior mitral regurgitation ≥II° (HR=1.42, 95% CI 1.21 to 1.65, p<0.0001), residual aortic regurgitation ≥II° (HR=1.52, 95% CI 1.24 to 1.85, p<0.0001), atrial fibrillation (HR=1.38, 95% CI 1.18 to 1.64, p=0.0001), low gradient aortic stenosis (HR=1.48, 95% CI 1.19 to 1.84, p=0.0004), prior decompensation (HR=1.32, 95% CI 1.13 to 1.54, p=0.0006), frailty (HR=1.31, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.58, p=0.004), surgical TAVI (HR=1.42, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.80, p=0.004), age (by year) (HR=1.02, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.03, p=0.006), prior myocardial infarction (HR=1.29, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.57, p=0.009), urgent TAVI (HR=1.25, 95% CI 1.04 to 51, p=0.020) and diabetes mellitus (HR=1.20, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.40, p=0.024).ConclusionsThese data from the early TAVI experience show a 5-year mortality of 59.1%. Some of the predictors of 5-year mortality seem to be modifiable, such as residual aortic regurgitation, type of TAVI access route and concomitant mitral regurgitation.© Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

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