• Radiother Oncol · Apr 2016

    Evaluation of a breast cancer nomogram to predict ipsilateral breast relapse after breast-conserving therapy.

    • Isabelle Kindts, Annouschka Laenen, Stephanie Peeters, Hilde Janssen, Tom Depuydt, Patrick Neven, Erik Van Limbergen, and Caroline Weltens.
    • KU Leuven - University of Leuven, Department of Oncology, Belgium; University Hospitals Leuven, Department of Radiation Oncology, Belgium. Electronic address: isabelle.kindts@uzleuven.be.
    • Radiother Oncol. 2016 Apr 1; 119 (1): 45-51.

    Background And PurposeA nomogram to predict for the 10-year ipsilateral breast relapse (IBR) after breast-conserving therapy (BCT) for breast cancer (BC) was developed based on the 'boost-no-boost'-trial with a concordance probability estimate (CPE) of 0.68. The aim of our study was to validate that algorithm.Material And MethodsWe retrospectively identified 1787 BC cases, treated with BCT and radiotherapy at the University Hospitals Leuven from 2000 to 2007, without missing data of the nomogram variables. Clinicopathologic factors were assessed. Validity of the prediction model was tested in terms of discrimination and calibration.ResultsMedian follow-up time was 10.75years. The validation cohort differed with respect to the administration of a radiation boost, chemo- or hormonal therapy, age, tumour diameter or grade, ductal carcinoma in situ and hormone receptor positivity. On multivariable analysis, the omission of the boost was a significant prognosticator of IBR (p<0.01). The 10-year IBR-rate was 1.4%. The nomogram demonstrated suboptimal discrimination (CPE 0.54) and calibration, with an overestimation of the IBR-risk in general.ConclusionsThe predictive model for IBR in BC is imperfect in this more recent study population.Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

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