• KraemerMoritz U GMUG0000-0001-8838-7147Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK. s.scarpino@northeastern.edu oliver.pybus@zoo.ox.ac.uk moritz.kraemer@zoo.ox.ac.uk.Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA.Boston Children's, Chia-Hung Yang, Bernardo Gutierrez, Chieh-Hsi Wu, Brennan Klein, David M Pigott, Open COVID-19 Data Working Group, Louis du Plessis, Nuno R Faria, Ruoran Li, William P Hanage, John S Brownstein, Maylis Layan, Alessandro Vespignani, Huaiyu Tian, Christopher Dye, Oliver G Pybus, and Samuel V Scarpino.
• Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK. s.scarpino@northeastern.edu oliver.pybus@zoo.ox.ac.uk moritz.kraemer@zoo.ox.ac.uk.
• Science. 2020 May 1; 368 (6490): 493-497.

AbstractThe ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak expanded rapidly throughout China. Major behavioral, clinical, and state interventions were undertaken to mitigate the epidemic and prevent the persistence of the virus in human populations in China and worldwide. It remains unclear how these unprecedented interventions, including travel restrictions, affected COVID-19 spread in China. We used real-time mobility data from Wuhan and detailed case data including travel history to elucidate the role of case importation in transmission in cities across China and to ascertain the impact of control measures. Early on, the spatial distribution of COVID-19 cases in China was explained well by human mobility data. After the implementation of control measures, this correlation dropped and growth rates became negative in most locations, although shifts in the demographics of reported cases were still indicative of local chains of transmission outside of Wuhan. This study shows that the drastic control measures implemented in China substantially mitigated the spread of COVID-19.Copyright © 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.

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