• Baltazar Nunes, Susana Silva, Ana Rodrigues, Rita Roquette, Inês Batista, and Helena Rebelo-de-Andrade.
• Department of Epidemiology, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr. Ricardo Jorge, Lisboa, Portugal.
• Am. J. Epidemiol. 2018 Dec 1; 187 (12): 2541-2549.

AbstractAlthough the impact of deaths occurring during the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic has been assessed in many archeo-epidemiologic studies, detailed estimates are not available for Portugal. We applied negative binomial models to monthly data on respiratory-related and all-cause deaths at the national and district levels from Portugal for 1916-1922. Influenza-related excess mortality was computed as the difference between observed and expected deaths. Poisson regression was used to estimate the association of geographic and sociodemographic factors with excess mortality. Two waves of pandemic influenza-July 1918 to January 1919 and April to May 1919-were identified, for which the excess all-cause death rate was 195.7 per 10,000 persons. All districts of Portugal were affected. The pandemic hit earlier in southeastern districts and the main cities, but excess mortality was highest in the northeast, in line with the high death burden experienced by northern Spanish provinces. During the period of intense excess mortality (fall/winter 1918-1919), population density was negatively associated with pandemic impact. This pattern changed during the March 1919 to June 1920 wave, when excess mortality increased with population density and in northern and western directions. Portuguese islands were less and later affected. Given the geographic heterogeneity evidenced in our study, subnational sociodemographic characteristics and connectivity should be integrated in pandemic preparedness plans.

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