• Fangyuan Gao, Qianqian Zhang, Yao Liu, Guozhong Gong, Dewen Mao, Zuojiong Gong, Jun Li, Xinla Luo, Xiaoliang Li, Guoliang Chen, Yong Li, Wenxia Zhao, Gang Wan, Hai Li, Kewei Sun, and Xianbo Wang.
• Center of Integrative Medicine, Beijing Ditan Hospital Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
• Dig Liver Dis. 2019 Mar 1; 51 (3): 425-433.

BackgroundThe current definitions and etiologies of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) are clearly very different between East and West.AimsThis study aimed to develop an effective prognostic nomogram for acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure (ACHBLF) as defined by the Asia Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver (APASL).MethodsThe nomogram was based on a retrospective study of 573 patients with ACHBLF, defined according to the APASL, at the Beijing Ditan Hospital. The results were validated using a bootstrapped approach to correct for bias in two external cohorts, including an APASL ACHBLF cohort (10 hospitals, N = 329) and an EASL-CLIF ACHBLF cohort (Renji Hospital, N = 300).ResultsMultivariate analysis of the derivation cohort for survival analysis helped identify the independent factors as age, total bilirubin, albumin, international normalized ratio, and hepatic encephalopathy, which were included in the nomogram. The predictive value of nomogram was the strongest compared with CLIF-C ACLF, MELD and MELD-Na and similar to COSSH-ACLF in both the derivation and prospective validation cohorts with APASL ACHBLF, but the CLIF-C ACLF was better in the EASL-CLIF ACHBLF cohort.ConclusionsThe proposed nomogram could accurately estimate individualized risk for the short-term mortality of patients with ACHBLF as defined by APASL.Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

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