• Health Policy Plan · Jul 2013

    Forecasting burden of long-term disability from neonatal conditions: results from the Projahnmo I trial, Sylhet, Bangladesh.

    • Samuel D Shillcutt, Amnesty E Lefevre, Anne C C Lee, Abdullah H Baqui, Robert E Black, and Gary L Darmstadt.
    • Health Systems Program, Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD 21205, USA. sshillcu@gmail.com
    • Health Policy Plan. 2013 Jul 1; 28 (4): 435-52.

    IntroductionThe burden of disease resulting from neonatal conditions is substantial in developing countries. From 2003 to 2005, the Projahnmo I programme delivered community-based interventions for maternal and newborn health in Sylhet, Bangladesh. This analysis quantifies burden of disability and incorporates non-fatal outcomes into cost-effectiveness analysis of interventions delivered in the Projahnmo I programme.MethodsA decision tree model was created to predict disability resulting from preterm birth, neonatal meningitis and intrapartum-related hypoxia ('birth asphyxia'). Outcomes were defined as the years lost to disability (YLD) component of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Calculations were based on data from the Projahnmo I trial, supplemented with values from published literature and expert opinion where data were absent.Results195 YLD per 1000 neonates [95% confidence interval (CI): 157-241] were predicted in the main calculation, sensitive to different DALY assumptions, disability weights and alternative model structures. The Projahnmo I home care intervention may have averted 2.0 (1.3-2.8) YLD per 1000 neonates. Compared with calculations based on reductions in mortality alone, the cost-effectiveness ratio decreased by only 0.6% from $105.23 to $104.62 ($65.15-$266.60) when YLD were included, with 0.6% more DALYs averted [total 338/1000 (95% CI: 131-542)].DiscussionA significant burden of disability results from neonatal conditions in Sylhet, Bangladesh. Adding YLD has very little impact on recommendations based on cost-effectiveness, even at the margin of programme adoption. This model provides guidance for collecting data on disabilities in new settings.

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