• Radiother Oncol · Jan 2020

    Multicenter Study

    Multi-institutional validation of brain metastasis velocity, a recently defined predictor of outcomes following stereotactic radiosurgery.

    • Emory R McTyre, Michael H Soike, Michael Farris, Diandra N Ayala-Peacock, Jaroslaw T Hepel, Brandi R Page, Colette Shen, Lawrence Kleinberg, Joseph N Contessa, Christopher Corso, Veronica Chiang, Adrianna Henson-Masters, Christina K Cramer, Jimmy Ruiz, Boris Pasche, Kounosuke Watabe, Ralph D'Agostino, Jing Su, Adrian W Laxton, Stephen B Tatter, John B Fiveash, Manmeet Ahluwalia, Rupesh Kotecha, Samuel T Chao, Steve E Braunstein, Albert Attia, Caroline Chung, and Michael D Chan.
    • Department of Radiation Oncology, Greenville Health System Cancer Institute, USA.
    • Radiother Oncol. 2020 Jan 1; 142: 168-174.

    IntroductionBrain metastasis velocity (BMV) is a prognostic metric that describes the recurrence rate of new brain metastases after initial treatment with radiosurgery (SRS). We have previously risk stratified patients into high, intermediate, and low-risk BMV groups, which correlates with overall survival (OS). We sought to externally validate BMV in a multi-institutional setting.MethodsPatients from nine academic centers were treated with upfront SRS; the validation cohort consisted of data from eight institutions not previously used to define BMV. Patients were classified by BMV into low (<4 BMV), intermediate (4-13 BMV), and high-risk groups (>13 BMV). Time-to-event outcomes were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Cox proportional hazards methods were used to estimate the effect of BMV and salvage modality on OS.ResultsOf 2829 patients, 2092 patients were included in the validation dataset. Of these, 921 (44.0%) experienced distant brain failure (DBF). Median OS from initial SRS was 11.2 mo. Median OS for BMV < 4, BMV 4-13, and BMV > 13 were 12.5 mo, 7.0 mo, and 4.6 mo (p < 0.0001). After multivariate regression modeling, melanoma histology (β: 10.10, SE: 1.89, p < 0.0001) and number of initial brain metastases (β: 1.52, SE: 0.34, p < 0.0001) remained predictive of BMV (adjusted R2 = 0.06).ConclusionsThis multi-institutional dataset validates BMV as a predictor of OS following initial SRS. BMV is being utilized in upcoming multi-institutional randomized controlled trials as a stratification variable for salvage whole brain radiation versus salvage SRS after DBF.Copyright © 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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