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Int J Environ Res Public Health · Sep 2020
Construction of the Infection Curve of Local Cases of COVID-19 in Hong Kong using Back-Projection.
- Pui Hing Chau, Wei Ying Li, and YipPaul S FPSF0000-0003-1596-4120Department of Social Work and Social Administration, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong.Hong Kong Jockey Club Centre for Suicide Research and Prevention, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong..
- School of Nursing, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong.
- Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2020 Sep 21; 17 (18).
AbstractThis study aimed to estimate the infection curve of local cases of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Hong Kong and identify major events and preventive measures associated with the trajectory of the infection curve in the first two waves. The daily number of onset local cases was used to estimate the daily number of infections based on back-projection. The estimated infection curve was examined to identify the preventive measures or major events associated with its trajectory. Until 30 April 2020, there were 422 confirmed local cases. The infection curve of the local cases in Hong Kong was constructed and used for evaluating the impacts of various policies and events in a narrative manner. Social gatherings and some pre-implementation announcements on inbound traveler policies coincided with peaks on the infection curve.
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