• C Echevarria, J Steer, K Heslop-Marshall, S C Stenton, P M Hickey, R Hughes, M Wijesinghe, R N Harrison, N Steen, A J Simpson, G J Gibson, and S C Bourke.
• Department of Respiratory Medicine, North Tyneside General Hospital, North Shields, UK Institute of Cellular Medicine, Newcastle University, Newcastle Upon Tyne, UK.
• Thorax. 2016 Feb 1; 71 (2): 133-40.

BackgroundHospitalisation due to acute exacerbations of COPD (AECOPD) is common, and subsequent mortality high. The DECAF score was derived for accurate prediction of mortality and risk stratification to inform patient care. We aimed to validate the DECAF score, internally and externally, and to compare its performance to other predictive tools.MethodsThe study took place in the two hospitals within the derivation study (internal validation) and in four additional hospitals (external validation) between January 2012 and May 2014. Consecutive admissions were identified by screening admissions and searching coding records. Admission clinical data, including DECAF indices, and mortality were recorded. The prognostic value of DECAF and other scores were assessed by the area under the receiver operator characteristic (AUROC) curve.ResultsIn the internal and external validation cohorts, 880 and 845 patients were recruited. Mean age was 73.1 (SD 10.3) years, 54.3% were female, and mean (SD) FEV1 45.5 (18.3) per cent predicted. Overall mortality was 7.7%. The DECAF AUROC curve for inhospital mortality was 0.83 (95% CI 0.78 to 0.87) in the internal cohort and 0.82 (95% CI 0.77 to 0.87) in the external cohort, and was superior to other prognostic scores for inhospital or 30-day mortality.ConclusionsDECAF is a robust predictor of mortality, using indices routinely available on admission. Its generalisability is supported by consistent strong performance; it can identify low-risk patients (DECAF 0-1) potentially suitable for Hospital at Home or early supported discharge services, and high-risk patients (DECAF 3-6) for escalation planning or appropriate early palliation.Trial Registration NumberUKCRN ID 14214.Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

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