• J Surg Oncol · Jun 2018

    New nomogram predicts the recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with negative preoperative serum AFP subjected to curative resection.

    • Wei Gan, Jin-Long Huang, Mei-Xia Zhang, Yi-Peng Fu, Yong Yi, Chu-Yu Jing, Jia Fan, Jian Zhou, and Shuang-Jian Qiu.
    • Department of Liver Surgery and Liver Transplantation, Liver Cancer Institute, Zhongshan Hospital and Shanghai Medical School, Fudan University, Key Laboratory for Carcinogenesis and Cancer Invasion, The Chinese Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China.
    • J Surg Oncol. 2018 Jun 1; 117 (7): 1540-1547.

    BackgroundThere is currently no established model for predicting the recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with negative alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) after curative resection. Therefore, the objective of this study was to establish a nomogram to identify the risk of recurrence in AFP-negative (MethodsA retrospective study was conducted to establish the recurrence-free survival (RFS) nomogram in a training cohort of 326 AFP-negative HCC patients. The results were validated on a well-matched validation cohort in the literature.ResultsMacrovascular tumour invasion (P = 0.018, HR = 1.642), macronodular cirrhosis (P < 0.001, HR = 2.128), tumor size (P = 0.004, HR = 1.691), and γ-glutamyl transferase (P = 0.039, HR = 1.496) were found to be independent risk factors for RFS in the training cohort, and all these factors were included in the nomogram. The C-index for RFS in the nomogram was 0.661, which was higher than that of the BCLC system (0.551), the CLIP score (0.537), and the prediction model of Ju (0.618). The high consistency between the nomogram prediction and actual observation was further demonstrated by the calibration curve. In the subsequent study, the better net benefit and higher threshold probability of the nomogram were determined by decision curve analysis, and these advantages were confirmed in the validation cohort.ConclusionsThe present RFS nomogram for AFP-negative HCC patients after curative resection provides an accurate and reliable prognostic model to facilitate recurrence surveillance. Once AFP-negative patients are predicted to have a high recurrence score, additional high-end imaging examinations, such as MRI or CT exams, should be considered, and the interval time of regular folow-up should be reduced.© 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

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