• Erik Volz, Verity Hill, John T McCrone, Anna Price, David Jorgensen, Áine O'Toole, Joel Southgate, Robert Johnson, Ben Jackson, Fabricia F Nascimento, Sara M Rey, Samuel M Nicholls, Rachel M Colquhoun, Ana da Silva Filipe, James Shepherd, David J Pascall, Rajiv Shah, Natasha Jesudason, Kathy Li, Ruth Jarrett, Nicole Pacchiarini, Matthew Bull, Lily Geidelberg, Igor Siveroni, COG-UK Consortium, Ian Goodfellow, Nicholas J Loman, Oliver G Pybus, David L Robertson, Emma C Thomson, Andrew Rambaut, and Thomas R Connor.
• MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK. Electronic address: e.volz@imperial.ac.uk.
• Cell. 2021 Jan 7; 184 (1): 64-75.e11.

AbstractGlobal dispersal and increasing frequency of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein variant D614G are suggestive of a selective advantage but may also be due to a random founder effect. We investigate the hypothesis for positive selection of spike D614G in the United Kingdom using more than 25,000 whole genome SARS-CoV-2 sequences. Despite the availability of a large dataset, well represented by both spike 614 variants, not all approaches showed a conclusive signal of positive selection. Population genetic analysis indicates that 614G increases in frequency relative to 614D in a manner consistent with a selective advantage. We do not find any indication that patients infected with the spike 614G variant have higher COVID-19 mortality or clinical severity, but 614G is associated with higher viral load and younger age of patients. Significant differences in growth and size of 614G phylogenetic clusters indicate a need for continued study of this variant.Copyright © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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