• Lindsay P Schwartz, Lillian Blank, and Steven R Hursh.
• Applied Behavioral Research, Institutes for Behavior Resources, Baltimore, MD, USA. Electronic address: lpschwartz@ibrinc.org.
• Drug Alcohol Depend. 2021 Apr 1; 221: 108562.

BackgroundBehavioral economics provides a framework in which to understand choice and motivation in the field of substance use disorders. Hypothetical purchase tasks (HPT), which indicate the amount or probability of purchasing substances at different prices, have been suggested as a clinical tool that can help predict future substance use and identify targets for intervention.MethodsHypothetical demand for heroin, cocaine, and benzodiazepines was assessed at baseline and after six-months in 52 opioid-agonist treatment patients. The results were analyzed using a novel exponential demand equation (normalized zero-bounded exponential model [ZBEn]) that uses a log-like transform that accommodates zero consumption values.ResultsDemand for these drugs was well described by the ZBEn model. After six months, demand intensity for heroin was decreased and demand metrics for cocaine and benzodiazepines increased. Multiple demand curve indices at baseline predicted the percentage of drug-positive urinalysis results at follow-up, even after controlling for covariates. Additionally, participants were divided into High and Low baseline demand groups for each drug based on demand indices. Participants with High demand at baseline for 8 out of 9 groups had significantly more drug-positive urine samples in the subsequent 6-month period.ConclusionsThis report provides evidence that demand assessment is predictive of future substance use and could help guide treatment planning at intake. These results also demonstrated that the ZBEn model provides good fits to consumption data and allows for sensitive statistical analyses.Copyright © 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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