• Debbie Y Madhok, John K Yue, Xiaoying Sun, Catherine G Suen, Nathan A Coss, Sonia Jain, and Geoffrey T Manley.
• Department of Emergency Medicine and Neurology, University of California San Francisco, Suite 6A, 1001 Potrero Ave, Building 5, Suite 6A, San Francisco, CA 94110, USA.

AbstractA considerable subset of mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI) patients fail to return to baseline functional status at or beyond 3 months postinjury. Identifying at-risk patients for poor outcome in the emergency department (ED) may improve surveillance strategies and referral to care. Subjects with mTBI (Glasgow Coma Scale 13-15) and negative ED initial head CT < 24 h of injury, completing 3- or 6-month functional outcome (Glasgow Outcome Scale-Extended; GOSE), were extracted from the prospective, multicenter Transforming Research and Clinical Knowledge in Traumatic Brain Injury (TRACK-TBI) Pilot study. Outcomes were dichotomized to full recovery (GOSE = 8) vs. functional deficits (GOSE < 8). Univariate predictors with p < 0.10 were considered for multivariable regression. Adjusted odds ratios (AOR) were reported for outcome predictors. Significance was assessed at p < 0.05. Subjects who completed GOSE at 3- and 6-month were 211 (GOSE < 8: 60%) and 185 (GOSE < 8: 65%). Risk factors for 6-month GOSE < 8 included less education (AOR = 0.85 per-year increase, 95% CI: (0.74-0.98)), prior psychiatric history (AOR = 3.75 (1.73-8.12)), Asian/minority race (American Indian/Alaskan/Hawaiian/Pacific Islander) (AOR = 23.99 (2.93-196.84)), and Hispanic ethnicity (AOR = 3.48 (1.29-9.37)). Risk factors for 3-month GOSE < 8 were similar with the addition of injury by assault predicting poorer outcome (AOR = 3.53 (1.17-10.63)). In mTBI patients seen in urban trauma center EDs with negative CT, education, injury by assault, Asian/minority race, and prior psychiatric history emerged as risk factors for prolonged disability.

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