• Suzanna E Dunkerton, Yadava B Jeve, Neil Walkinshaw, Eamonn Breslin, and Tanu Singhal.
• Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, University Hospitals of Leicester, Leicester, United Kingdom.
• Am J Perinatol. 2018 Jan 1; 35 (2): 163-169.

Objective The aim of the present study was to develop a toolkit combining various risk factors to predict the risk of developing a postpartum hemorrhage (PPH) during a cesarean delivery.Study Design A retrospective cohort study of 24,230 women who had cesarean delivery between January 2003 and December 2013 at a tertiary care teaching hospital within the United Kingdom serving a multiethnic population. Data were extracted from hospital databases, and risk factors for PPH were identified. Hothorn et al recursive partitioning algorithm was used to infer a conditional decision tree. For each of the identified combinations of risk factors, two probabilities were calculated: the probability of a patient producing ≥1,000 and ≥ 2,000 mL blood loss.Results The Leicester PPH predict score was then tested on the randomly selected remaining 25% (n = 6,095) of the data for internal validity. Reliability testing showed an intraclass correlation of 0.98 and mean absolute error of 239.8 mL with the actual outcome.Conclusion The proposed toolkit enables clinicians to predict the risk of postpartum hemorrhage. As a result, preventative measures for postpartum hemorrhage could be undertaken. Further external validation of the current toolkit is required.Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

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