• Health policy · Nov 2000

    Intervention times series analysis of pertussis vaccination in England and Wales.

    • D Z Girard.
    • Department of Economics, University of Nantes, Chemin de la Censive du Tertre, LEN-CEBS, BP 52241, 44 322 Cedex 03, Nantes, France. girard@sc-eco.univ-nantes.fr
    • Health Policy. 2000 Nov 1;54(1):13-25.

    AbstractWe use the ARIMA model with intervention in order to analyse the epidemiological situation of whooping-cough in England and Wales for the period of 1940-1990. The ARIMA modelling of this illness contains intervention variables, such as the introduction of widespread vaccination in 1957 and the fall in the level of vaccination down to 30% in 1978. The results of this analysis confirm the role of the intervention variables on the evolution of the morbidity due to whooping-cough, by quantifying their impact on the level of the morbidity, as well as the delay needed before they have an influence on the increase of recorded cases of whooping-cough.

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