• Piotr Duchnowski, Tomasz Hryniewiecki, Mariusz Kuśmierczyk, and Piotr Szymanski.
• Institute of Cardiology, Department of Acquired Cardiac Defects, Warsaw, Poland.
• J Thorac Dis. 2019 May 1; 11 (5): 2076-2081.

BackgroundThe aim of the study was to assess the predictive ability of risk calculators of the EuroSCORE II and the Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) score in patients undergoing aortic valve replacement (AVR) due to severe aortic valve stenosis (AS) during a 30-day and 1-year follow-up.MethodsA prospective study was conducted on a group of consecutive patients with hemodynamically significant aortic valve stenosis that underwent elective valve replacement surgery. The risk of surgery using EuroSCORE II and STS was calculated for each patient. The primary and secondary endpoints were 30-day and 1-year mortality.ResultsThe study group included 428 consecutive patients who underwent replacement of the aortic valve. Thirteen patients died during the 30-day follow-up and 25 patients died during 1-year follow-up. Actual mortality in 30-day observation was 3.0% compared to the predicted 2.9% using EuroSCORE II and 2.1% for STS. The discriminations of ES II and STS score were above 0.8 for mortality prediction during the 30-day and 1-year observation period.ConclusionsThe EuroSCORE II and STS score showed satisfactory discrimination and calibration for predicting 30-day and 1-year mortality in patients undergoing AVR.

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