• Jonathan Caleb Quek, Qiao Li Tan, John Carson Allen, and Devanand Anantham.
• Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, Singapore General Hospital, Duke-National University of Singapore Medical School, Singapore.
• Respirology. 2020 Dec 1; 25 (12): 1283-1291.

Background And ObjectiveLENT and PROMISE scores prognosticate survival in patients with MPE. Prognostication guides the selection of interventions and management. However, the predictive value of these scores and their refinements (modified-LENT) in Asians remain unclear. We aim to evaluate the performance of LENT, modified-LENT and clinical PROMISE scores; identify predictors of survival; and develop an alternative prognostication tool should current scores lack accuracy.MethodsRetrospective medical record review of an Asian pleuroscopy database from 2011 to 2018 of patients with MPE was conducted. The prognostic capability of current available scores were evaluated using C-statistics. Demographic and clinical variables as predictors of survival were assessed, and an alternative model was developed using logistic regression.ResultsIn 130 patients, the C-statistics for modified-LENT was not significantly different from LENT (0.59 (95% CI: 0.52-0.67) vs 0.56 (95% CI: 0.49-0.63); P = 0.403). In 57 patients, the PROMISE C-statistics was 0.72 (95% CI: 0.53-0.91). In our alternative prognostication model (n = 147), Sex, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group status, Leukocyte count, EGFR mutation, Chemotherapy and primary Tumour type (SELECT) were predictors of 90-day mortality (C-statistic = 0.87 (95% CI: 0.79-0.95)). SELECT sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and positive and negative likelihood ratios using a predicted probability of 90-day mortality cut-off point of 10% were 0.91, 0.68, 0.34, 0.98, 2.83 and 0.13, respectively.ConclusionThe LENT, modified-LENT and PROMISE scores have poor accuracy of survival prognostication in Asian patients with MPE undergoing pleuroscopy. The proposed SELECT prognostication model is accurate at identifying patients with high probability of survival at 90 days.© 2020 Asian Pacific Society of Respirology.

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