• Hui Jeong Moon, Kyunghoon Kim, Eun Kyeong Kang, Hyeon-Jong Yang, and Eun Lee.
• SCH Biomedical Informatics Research Unit, Soonchunhyang University Seoul Hospital, Seoul, Korea.
• J. Korean Med. Sci. 2021 Sep 6; 36 (35): e248.

BackgroundPrediction of mortality in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a key to improving the clinical outcomes, considering that the COVID-19 pandemic has led to the collapse of healthcare systems in many regions worldwide. This study aimed to identify the factors associated with COVID-19 mortality and to develop a nomogram for predicting mortality using clinical parameters and underlying diseases.MethodsThis study was performed in 5,626 patients with confirmed COVID-19 between February 1 and April 30, 2020 in South Korea. A Cox proportional hazards model and logistic regression model were used to construct a nomogram for predicting 30-day and 60-day survival probabilities and overall mortality, respectively in the train set. Calibration and discrimination were performed to validate the nomograms in the test set.ResultsAge ≥ 70 years, male, presence of fever and dyspnea at the time of COVID-19 diagnosis, and diabetes mellitus, cancer, or dementia as underling diseases were significantly related to 30-day and 60-day survival and mortality in COVID-19 patients. The nomogram showed good calibration for survival probabilities and mortality. In the train set, the areas under the curve (AUCs) for 30-day and 60-day survival was 0.914 and 0.954, respectively; the AUC for mortality of 0.959. In the test set, AUCs for 30-day and 60-day survival was 0.876 and 0.660, respectively, and that for mortality was 0.926. The online calculators can be found at https://koreastat.shinyapps.io/RiskofCOVID19/.ConclusionThe prediction model could accurately predict COVID-19-related mortality; thus, it would be helpful for identifying the risk of mortality and establishing medical policies during the pandemic to improve the clinical outcomes.© 2021 The Korean Academy of Medical Sciences.

23 keywords...

hide…