• Shuo Jiang, Qiuyue Li, Chaoqun Li, Shanshan Liu, Xiaomeng He, Tao Wang, Hua Li, Christopher Corpe, Xiaoyan Zhang, Jianqing Xu, and Jin Wang.
• Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center, Fudan University, 2901 Caolang Road, Jinshan District, Shanghai, 201508, People's Republic of China.
• J Transl Med. 2020 Sep 5; 18 (1): 345.

BackgroundCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), spreads rapidly and has attracted worldwide attention.MethodsTo improve the forecast accuracy and investigate the spread of SARS-CoV-2, we constructed four mathematical models to numerically estimate the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and the efficacy of eradication strategies.ResultsUsing the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed (SEIR) model, and including measures such as city closures and extended leave policies implemented by the Chinese government that effectively reduced the β value, we estimated that the β value and basic transmission number, R0, of SARS-CoV-2 was 0.476/6.66 in Wuhan, 0.359/5.03 in Korea, and 0.400/5.60 in Italy. Considering medicine and vaccines, an advanced model demonstrated that the emergence of vaccines would greatly slow the spread of the virus. Our model predicted that 100,000 people would become infected assuming that the isolation rate α in Wuhan was 0.30. If quarantine measures were taken from March 10, 2020, and the quarantine rate of α was also 0.3, then the final number of infected people was predicted to be 11,426 in South Korea and 147,142 in Italy.ConclusionsOur mathematical models indicate that SARS-CoV-2 eradication depends on systematic planning, effective hospital isolation, and SARS-CoV-2 vaccination, and some measures including city closures and leave policies should be implemented to ensure SARS-CoV-2 eradication.

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