• José Antonio Garcia-Gordillo, Antonio Camiro-Zúñiga, Mercedes Aguilar-Soto, Dalia Cuenca, Arturo Cadena-Fernández, Latife Salame Khouri, Jesica Naanous Rayek, Moises Mercado, and ARMII Study Group.
• Internal Medicine Department, The American British Cowdray Medical Center, Mexico City, Mexico.
• Plos One. 2021 Jan 1; 16 (4): e0248357.

BackgroundCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a systemic disease that can rapidly progress into acute respiratory failure and death. Timely identification of these patients is crucial for a proper administration of health-care resources.ObjectiveTo develop a predictive score that estimates the risk of invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) among patients with COVID-19.Study DesignRetrospective cohort study of 401 COVID-19 patients diagnosed from March 12, to August 10, 2020. The score development cohort comprised 211 patients (52.62% of total sample) whereas the validation cohort included 190 patients (47.38% of total sample). We divided participants according to the need of invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) and looked for potential predictive variables.ResultsWe developed two predictive scores, one based on Interleukin-6 (IL-6) and the other one on the Neutrophil/Lymphocyte ratio (NLR), using the following variables: respiratory rate, SpO2/FiO2 ratio and lactic dehydrogenase (LDH). The area under the curve (AUC) in the development cohort was 0.877 (0.823-0.931) using the NLR based score and 0.891 (0.843-0.939) using the IL-6 based score. When compared with other similar scores developed for the prediction of adverse outcomes in COVID-19, the COVID-IRS scores proved to be superior in the prediction of IMV.ConclusionThe COVID-IRS scores accurately predict the need for mechanical ventilation in COVID-19 patients using readily available variables taken upon admission. More studies testing the applicability of COVID-IRS in other centers and populations, as well as its performance as a triage tool for COVID-19 patients are needed.

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