• Carsten Nieder, Jan Norum, Astrid Dalhaug, Gro Aandahl, and Kirsten Engljähringer.
• Department of Oncology and Palliative Medicine, Nordland Hospital, 8092, Bodø, Norway, carsten.nieder@nlsh.no.
• Support Care Cancer. 2013 Oct 1; 21 (10): 2671-8.

PurposeThis study aimed to develop a survival prediction model that might aid decision making when choosing between best supportive care (BSC) and brain radiotherapy (RT) for patients with brain metastases and limited survival expectation.MethodsA retrospective analysis of 124 patients treated with BSC, whole brain radiotherapy (WBRT), or radiosurgery was conducted. All patients had adverse prognostic features defined as 0-1.5 points according to the diagnosis-specific graded prognostic assessment score (DS-GPA) or GPA if primary tumor type was not among those represented in DS-GPA. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were compared between patients treated with BSC or RT in different scenarios, reflecting more or less rigorous definitions of poor prognosis. If survival was indistinguishable and this result could be confirmed in multivariate analysis, BSC was considered appropriate.ResultsIrrespective of point sum examined, DS-GPA by itself was not a satisfactory selection parameter. However, we defined a subgroup of 63 patients (51 %) with short survival irrespective of management approach (only 5 % of irradiated patients survived beyond 6 months; they had newly diagnosed, treatment-naïve lung cancer), i.e., patients in whom foregoing RT was unlikely to compromise survival. These were patients with 0-1.5 points and aged ≥ 75 years, had Karnofsky performance status ≤ 50, or had uncontrolled primary tumor with extracranial metastases to at least two organs.ConclusionsBSC is a reasonable choice in patients with limited life expectancy. After successful external validation of the selection criteria developed in this analysis, identification of patients who are unlikely to benefit from WBRT might be improved.

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