• Ann-Christin Johansson, Steven J Linton, Andreas Rosenblad, Leif Bergkvist, and Olle Nilsson.
• Department for Orthopaedic Surgery, Centre for Clinical Research, Uppsala University, Central Hospital, SE-721 89 Västerås, Sweden. annchristin.johansson@ltv.se
• Disabil Rehabil. 2010 Jan 1;32(7):521-9.

PurposeThe primary aim of this study was to analyse the predictive value of cognitive and behavioural factors, in relation to pain, disability and quality of life (QoL) one year after lumbar disc surgery.MethodThe study design was prospective. Fifty-nine patients scheduled for first time lumbar disc surgery were included. Pain, disability, QoL, coping, fear avoidance beliefs, expected outcome and sick leave were assessed preoperatively and 12 months after surgery. Multiple backward stepwise logistic regression analyses were performed to study the contribution of the preoperatively measured independent behavioural/cognitive factors (coping, fear avoidance beliefs and assessed chance to return to work within 3 months) to the dependent variables pain, disability and quality of life at 12 months after surgery.ResultsLow expectations on work return within 3 months after surgery was significantly predictive for residual leg pain, odds ratio (OR) = 8.2, back pain, OR = 9.7, disability, OR = 13.8 and sick leave, OR = 19.5. Low QoL, was best predicted by preoperatively high scores on fear avoidance beliefs OR = 6.6 and being a woman OR = 6.0. The regression model explained 26-40% of the variance in pain, disability, QoL and sick leave.ConclusionsEliciting patients' expectations on work return after surgery could contribute to early identification of those who run the risk of developing long-term disability and sick-leave.

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