• Min Sun Shin, Boram Sim, Won Mo Jang, and Jin Yong Lee.
• Division of Evidence-Based Research, HIRA Research Institute, Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service (HIRA), Wonju, Korea.
• J. Korean Med. Sci. 2021 Oct 11; 36 (39): e280.

BackgroundExcess all-cause mortality is helpful to assess the full extent of the health impact, including direct and indirect deaths of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The study aimed to estimate overall and regional excess all-cause mortality during the pandemic in Korea.MethodsWe obtained all-cause death data and population statistics from January 2010 to December 2020. The expected mortality in 2020 was estimated using a quasi-Poisson regression model. The model included death year, seasonal variation, cold wave (January), average death counts in the previous month, and population. Excess mortality was defined as the difference between the observed mortality and the expected mortality. Regions were classified into three areas according to the numbers of COVID-19 cases.ResultsThere was no annual excess all-cause mortality in 2020 at the national and regional level compared to the average death for the previous ten years. The observed mortality in 2020 was 582.9 per 100,000 people, and the expected mortality was 582.3 per 100,000 people (95% confidence interval, 568.3-596.7). However, we found monthly and regional variations depending on the waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in Korea. While the mortality in August, October, and November exceeded the expected range, the mortality in September was lower than the expected range. The months in which excess deaths were identified differed by region.ConclusionOur results show that the mortality in 2020 was similar to the historical trend. However, in the era of the COVID-19 pandemic, it would be necessary to regularly investigate COVID-19-related mortality and determine its direct and indirect causes.© 2021 The Korean Academy of Medical Sciences.

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