• Whanhee Lee, Seung-Sik Hwang, Insung Song, Chaerin Park, Honghyok Kim, In-Kyung Song, Hayon Michelle Choi, Kristi Prifti, Younggyu Kwon, Jeongheon Kim, Seuk Oh, Juyeon Yang, Mirae Cha, Yoonhee Kim, Michelle L Bell, and Ho Kim.
• Department of Public Health Science, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
• Int J Epidemiol. 2020 Aug 1; 49 (4): 1106-1116.

BackgroundSouth Korea experienced the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in the early period; thus data from this country could provide significant implications for global mitigation strategies. This study reports how COVID-19 has spread in South Korea and examines the effects of rapid widespread diagnostic testing on the spread of the disease in the early epidemic phase.MethodsWe collected daily data on the number of confirmed cases, tests and deaths due to COVID-19 from 20 January to 13 April 2020. We estimated the spread pattern with a logistic growth model, calculated the daily reproduction number (Rt) and examined the fatality pattern of COVID-19.ResultsFrom the start date of the epidemic in Korea (18 February 2020), the time to peak and plateau were 15.2 and 25 days, respectively. The initial Rt was 3.9 [95% credible interval (CI) 3.7 to 4.2] and declined to <1 after 2 weeks. The initial epidemic doubling time was 3.8 days (3.4 to 4.2 days). The aggressive testing in the early days of the epidemic was associated with reduction in transmission speed of COVID-19. In addition, as of 13 April, the case fatality rate of COVID-19 in Korea was 2.1%, suggesting a positive effect of the targeted treatment policy for severe patients and medical resources.ConclusionsOur findings provide important information for establishing and revising action plans based on testing strategies and severe patient care systems, needed to address the unprecedented pandemic.© The Author(s) 2020; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

38 keywords...

hide…