• Shruti Aggarwal, Punya Jain, and Amit Jain.
• From Cornea and Refractive Surgery, Katzen Eye Institute (Aggarwal), Jain Ventures LLC (P. Jain), and Johns Hopkins University (A. Jain), Baltimore, Maryland, USA.
• J Cataract Refract Surg. 2020 Nov 1; 46 (11): 1530-1533.

PurposeTo forecast the volume of cataract surgery in Medicare beneficiaries in the United States in 2020 and to estimate the surgical backlog that may be created due to COVID-19.SettingMedicare Beneficiaries, United States.DesignEpidemiologic modeling.MethodsBaseline trends in cataract surgery among Medicare beneficiaries were assessed by querying the Medicare Part B Provider Utilization National Summary data. It was assumed that once the surgical deferment is over, there will be a ramp-up period; this was modeled using a stochastic Monte Carlo simulation. Total surgical backlog 2 years postsuspension was estimated. Sensitivity analyses were used to test model assumptions.ResultsAssuming cataract surgeries were to resume in May 2020, it would take 4 months under an optimistic scenario to revert to 90% of the expected pre-COVID forecasted volume. At 2-year postsuspension, the resulting backlog would be between 1.1 and 1.6 million cases. Sensitivity analyses revealed that a substantial surgical backlog would remain despite potentially lower surgical demand in the future.ConclusionsSuspension of elective cataract surgical care during the COVID-19 surge might have a lasting impact on ophthalmology and will likely result in a cataract surgical patient backlog. These data may aid physicians, payers, and policymakers in planning for postpandemic recovery.

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