• Caio Simoes Souza, Fernanda Simoes Seabra Resende, and Marcelo Palmeira Rodrigues.
• SQSW 306, B, 603, Brasília 70673-432, DF, Brazil. pmarcelo27@gmail.com.
• Singap Med J. 2014 Sep 1; 55 (9): 483-7.

IntroductionAcute pulmonary embolism (APE) is an urgent clinical condition that can progress in a wide variety of ways. Therefore, we sought to develop an easy-to-apply algorithm, to be based on readily available clinical indicators, effective in predicting unfavourable outcomes.MethodsThis was a retrospective cohort study based on systematically collected data in a database. The study included 102 patients with APE who were admitted to a tertiary care hospital. The following outcomes were defined as unfavourable: shock, the need for mechanical ventilation, the use of thrombolytics, and death. Logistic regression analysis was used to explore variables significantly associated with outcome and to calculate post-test probabilities.ResultsThe prevalence of unfavourable outcomes was 25.5% (26 of the 102 patients with APE). The risk of an unfavourable outcome was reduced to 7.0% for patients with APE who were aged ≤ 40 years. In patients with APE who were aged > 40 years, the presence of hypoxaemia (i.e. peripheral oxygen saturation < 90%) alone increased the risk of an unfavourable outcome to 57.0%. A recent history of trauma and the presence of pre-existing lung or heart disease were significantly associated with unfavourable outcomes. The inclusion of those variables in the logistic regression model increased the post-test risk of an unfavourable outcome to 65.0%-86.0%.ConclusionAdvanced age (i.e. > 40 years), the presence of hypoxaemia, a recent history of trauma and the presence of pre-existing lung or heart disease are risk factors for unfavourable outcome in patients with APE.

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