• Anna Lee, Fang Zhu, Malcolm John Underwood, and Charles David Gomersall.
• Department of Anaesthesia and Intensive Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, Hong Kong. annalee@cuhk.edu.hk
• Crit. Care Med.. 2013 May 1;41(5):1205-13.

ObjectiveTo facilitate the planning of perioperative care pathways, a fast-track failure prediction model has been developed in patients undergoing cardiac surgery. This study externally validated such a fast-track failure risk prediction model and determined the potential clinical consequences to ICU bed utilization.DesignProspective cohort study.SettingCardiothoracic Surgery Department and Intensive Care Unit of Prince of Wales Hospital, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, Hong Kong.PatientsThe St. Mary's Hospital fast-track failure risk prediction model was applied to patients included in an adult cardiac surgery database (January 2006 to June 2011).InterventionsThe performance of the fast-track failure risk model was assessed by discrimination and calibration methods. The potential clinical consequences of applying the model on ICU bed utilization was assessed using a decision curve analysis.Measurements And Main ResultsOf the 1,597 patients, 175 (11%) failed fast-track management. The final updated model showed very good discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.82, 95% confidence interval 0.78-0.86) and adequate calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit statistic, p = 0.80). A decision curve analysis showed that if a threshold probability range of fast-track failure of 5% to 20% is used to determine who should be electively admitted to the ICU and who should be admitted to a fast-track recovery unit, it would lead to a substantial benefit (23%-67%) in terms of effective bed utilization, even after taking into account the negative consequences of unplanned admissions.ConclusionsAs the performance of the final updated fast-track failure model was very good, it can be used to estimate the predicted probability of fast-track failure on individual patients. The clinical consequence of applying the final model appears substantial with regard to the potential increase in effective ICU bed utilization.

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