• J. Infect. Dis. · Oct 2020

    Coronavirus Disease 2019 Epidemic Doubling Time in the United States Before and During Stay-at-Home Restrictions.

    • Mark N Lurie, Joe Silva, Rachel R Yorlets, Jun Tao, and Philip A Chan.
    • Department of Epidemiology, Brown University School of Public Health, Providence, Rhode Island, USA.
    • J. Infect. Dis. 2020 Oct 13; 222 (10): 1601-1606.

    BackgroundCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread rapidly in the United States since January 2020.MethodsWe estimated mean epidemic doubling time, an important measure of epidemic growth, nationally, by state, and in association with stay-at-home orders.ResultsThe epidemic doubling time in the United States was 2.68 days (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.30-3.24 days) before widespread mitigation efforts, increasing by 460% to 15 days (12.89-17.94 days) during the mitigation phase. Among states without stay-at-home orders, the median increase in doubling time was 60% (95% CI, 9.2-223.3), compared with 269% (95% CI, 277.0-394.0) for states with stay-at-home orders.ConclusionsStatewide mitigation strategies were strongly associated with increased epidemic doubling time.© The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

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