• Tamar Jacob, Mario Baras, Aviva Zeev, and Leon Epstein.
• Physiotherapy Department, College of Judea and Samaria, Ariel.
• Spine. 2004 Aug 15; 29 (16): 1810-7.

ObjectivesTo assess the report of low back pain (LBP) over 1 year and its predictors in individuals reporting symptoms during an initial cross-sectional survey.Study DesignA longitudinal community-based study.Summary Of Background DataThe natural history of LBP is poorly understood. Different studies report various rates of persistent and recurrent symptoms as well as different predictors of outcomes.MethodsSubjects from a single town in Israel reporting low back pain during the previous month were followed up after 2 and 12 months. The primary outcome was experiencing LBP and the secondary outcomes were pain and functional status as measured by the Roland & Morris Disability questionnaire and Pain Symptoms Frequency and Bothersomeness Indexes.ResultsMore than three fourths reported LBP (different levels of severity) after 2 and 12 months. This group did not show an improvement in pain measures. Baseline pain characteristics and perception of general health were predictors of both primary and secondary outcomes. Work satisfaction and experiencing a negative event during the past months were also predictors of the secondary outcomes.ConclusionsIn this community-based study, LBP symptoms after 1 year are common and symptoms of those experiencing LBP at follow up do not improve over time. Predictors of experiencing LBP and of LBP symptoms after 1 year included baseline pain characteristics and psychosocial factors.

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