• Ralf Wagner, David Peterhoff, Stephanie Beileke, Felix Günther, Melanie Berr, Sebastian Einhauser, Anja Schütz, Hans Helmut Niller, Philipp Steininger, Antje Knöll, Matthias Tenbusch, Clara Maier, Klaus Korn, Klaus J Stark, André Gessner, Ralph Burkhardt, Michael Kabesch, Holger Schedl, Helmut Küchenhoff, Annette B Pfahlberg, Iris M Heid, Olaf Gefeller, and Klaus Überla.
• Institute of Medical Microbiology and Hygiene, Molecular Microbiology (Virology), University of Regensburg, Franz-Josef-Strauß-Allee 11, 93053 Regensburg, Germany.
• Viruses Basel. 2021 Jun 10; 13 (6).

AbstractSARS-CoV-2 infection fatality ratios (IFR) remain controversially discussed with implications for political measures. The German county of Tirschenreuth suffered a severe SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in spring 2020, with particularly high case fatality ratio (CFR). To estimate seroprevalence, underreported infections, and IFR for the Tirschenreuth population aged ≥14 years in June/July 2020, we conducted a population-based study including home visits for the elderly, and analyzed 4203 participants for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies via three antibody tests. Latent class analysis yielded 8.6% standardized county-wide seroprevalence, a factor of underreported infections of 5.0, and 2.5% overall IFR. Seroprevalence was two-fold higher among medical workers and one third among current smokers with similar proportions of registered infections. While seroprevalence did not show an age-trend, the factor of underreported infections was 12.2 in the young versus 1.7 for ≥85-year-old. Age-specific IFRs were <0.5% below 60 years of age, 1.0% for age 60-69, and 13.2% for age 70+. Senior care homes accounted for 45% of COVID-19-related deaths, reflected by an IFR of 7.5% among individuals aged 70+ and an overall IFR of 1.4% when excluding senior care home residents from our computation. Our data underscore senior care home infections as key determinant of IFR additionally to age, insufficient targeted testing in the young, and the need for further investigations on behavioral or molecular causes of the fewer infections among current smokers.

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