• Chrystian Soares Mendes, Alexandre Bragança Coelho, José Gustavo Féres, Elvanio Costa de Souza, and Dênis Antônio da Cunha.
• Instituto de Ciências Sociais Aplicadas, Universidade Federal de Ouro Preto, Mariana, MG, Brasil, chrystiansm@hotmail.com.
• Cien Saude Colet. 2016 Jan 1; 21 (1): 263-72.

AbstractThis paper sought to assess how climate change will affect the proliferation of leishmaniasis in Brazil in three time frames: 2010-2039, 2040-2079 and 2080-2100, and with two climate change scenarios. The relation of temperature, precipitation and the number of hospital admissions due to leishmaniasis was estimated and projections were made using these results. Results show that precipitation has a strong relation with leishmaniasis incidence and projections show that by the end of the twenty-first century there will be a 15% growth in the annual number of hospital admissions due to leishmaniasis in Brazil, compared to the base scenario (1992-2002). In regional terms, projections indicate growth in every region, with the exception of the Mid-West. The highest relative growth will be in the South of the country, while the highest increase in absolute terms will be observed in the Northeast region. In general, the incidence of leishmaniasis will grow in Brazil due to climate change.

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