• Int. J. Infect. Dis. · May 2020

    Preliminary estimation of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases in Iran: A modelling analysis based on overseas cases and air travel data.

    • Zian Zhuang, Shi Zhao, Qianying Lin, Peihua Cao, Yijun Lou, Lin Yang, and Daihai He.
    • Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong SAR, China.
    • Int. J. Infect. Dis. 2020 May 1; 94: 29-31.

    AbstractAs of March 1, 2020, Iran had reported 987 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases, including 54 associated deaths. At least six neighboring countries (Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Afghanistan, and Pakistan) had reported imported COVID-19 cases from Iran. In this study, air travel data and the numbers of cases from Iran imported into other Middle Eastern countries were used to estimate the number of COVID-19 cases in Iran. It was estimated that the total number of cases in Iran was 16 533 (95% confidence interval: 5925-35 538) by February 25, 2020, before the UAE and other Gulf Cooperation Council countries suspended inbound and outbound flights from Iran.Copyright © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

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