• Jun-Ying Li, Hong-Fei Wang, Ping Yin, Di Li, Di-Le Wang, Peng Peng, Wei-Hua Wang, Lan Wang, Xiao-Wei Yuan, Jin-Yuan Xie, Fan Zhou, Nian Xiong, Feng Shao, Chun-Xiu Wang, Xiang Tong, Hao Ye, Wen-Jun Wan, Ben-De Liu, Wen-Zhu Li, Qian Li, Liang V Tang, Yu Hu, LipGregory Y HGYHLiverpool Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Liverpool and Liverpool Heart & Chest Hospital, Liverpool, UK.Aalborg Thrombosis Research Unit, Department of Clinical Medicine, Aalborg University, Aalborg, Denmark., and Thrombo-COVID-19 Collaborative.
• Institute of Hematology, Union Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China.
• J. Thromb. Haemost. 2021 Apr 1; 19 (4): 1038-1048.

BackgroundHigh incidence of asymptomatic venous thromboembolism (VTE) has been observed in severe COVID-19 patients, but the characteristics of symptomatic VTE in general COVID-19 patients have not been described.ObjectivesTo comprehensively explore the prevalence and reliable risk prediction for VTE in COVID-19 patients.Methods/ResultsThis retrospective study enrolled all COVID-19 patients with a subsequent VTE in 16 centers in China from January 1 to March 31, 2020. A total of 2779 patients were confirmed with COVID-19. In comparison to 23,434 non-COVID-19 medical inpatients, the odds ratios (ORs) for developing symptomatic VTE in severe and non-severe hospitalized COVID-19 patients were 5.94 (95% confidence interval [CI] 3.91-10.09) and 2.79 (95% CI 1.43-5.60), respectively. When 104 VTE cases and 208 non-VTE cases were compared, pulmonary embolism cases had a higher rate for in-hospital death (OR 6.74, 95% CI 2.18-20.81). VTE developed at a median of 21 days (interquartile range 13.25-31) since onset. Independent factors for VTE were advancing age, cancer, longer interval from symptom onset to admission, lower fibrinogen and higher D-dimer on admission, and D-dimer increment (DI) ≥1.5-fold; of these, DI ≥1.5-fold had the most significant association (OR 14.18, 95% CI 6.25-32.18, p = 2.23 × 10-10 ). A novel model consisting of three simple coagulation variables (fibrinogen and D-dimer levels on admission, and DI ≥1.5-fold) showed good prediction for symptomatic VTE (area under the curve 0.865, 95% CI 0.822-0.907, sensitivity 0.930, specificity 0.710).ConclusionsThere is an excess risk of VTE in hospitalized COVID-19 patients. This novel model can aid early identification of patients who are at high risk for VTE.© 2021 International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis.

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