• Anne Ewing, Elizabeth C Lee, Cécile Viboud, and Shweta Bansal.
• Department of Biology, Georgetown University, Washington, D. C. USA.
• J. Infect. Dis. 2017 Mar 1; 215 (5): 732-739.

BackgroundThe seasonality of influenza is thought to vary according to environmental factors and human behavior. During winter holidays, potential disease-causing contact and travel deviate from typical patterns. We aim to understand these changes on age-specific and spatial influenza transmission.MethodsWe characterized the changes to transmission and epidemic trajectories among children and adults in a spatial context before, during, and after the winter holidays among aggregated physician medical claims in the United States from 2001 to 2009 and among synthetic data simulated from a deterministic, age-specific spatial metapopulation model.ResultsWinter holidays reduced influenza transmission and delayed the trajectory of influenza season epidemics. The holiday period was marked by a shift in the relative risk of disease from children toward adults. Model results indicated that holidays delayed epidemic peaks and synchronized incidence across locations, and that contact reductions from school closures, rather than age-specific mixing and travel, produced these observed holiday influenza dynamics.ConclusionsWinter holidays delay seasonal influenza epidemic peaks and shift disease risk toward adults because of changes in contact patterns. These findings may inform targeted influenza information and vaccination campaigns during holiday periods.© The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

27 keywords...

hide…