• BMJ open · Sep 2021

    Predictors of incident SARS-CoV-2 infections in an international prospective cohort study.

    • Anthony Lin, Eric Vittinghoff, Jeffrey Olgin, Noah Peyser, Sidney Aung, Sean Joyce, Vivian Yang, Janet Hwang, Robert Avram, Gregory Nah, Geoffrey H Tison, Alexis Beatty, Ryan Runge, David Wen, Xochitl Butcher, Cathy Horner, Helena Eitel, Mark Pletcher, and Gregory M Marcus.
    • Department of Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USA.
    • BMJ Open. 2021 Sep 21; 11 (9): e052025.

    ObjectiveUntil effective treatments and vaccines are made readily and widely available, preventative behavioural health measures will be central to the SARS-CoV-2 public health response. While current recommendations are grounded in general infectious disease prevention practices, it is still not entirely understood which particular behaviours or exposures meaningfully affect one's own risk of incident SARS-CoV-2 infection. Our objective is to identify individual-level factors associated with one's personal risk of contracting SARS-CoV-2.DesignProspective cohort study of adult participants from 26 March 2020 to 8 October 2020.SettingThe COVID-19 Citizen Science Study, an international, community and mobile-based study collecting daily, weekly and monthly surveys in a prospective and time-updated manner.ParticipantsAll adult participants over the age of 18 years were eligible for enrolment.Primary Outcome MeasureThe primary outcome was incident SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed via PCR or antigen testing.Results28 575 unique participants contributed 2 479 149 participant-days of data across 99 different countries. Of these participants without a history of SARS-CoV-2 infection at the time of enrolment, 112 developed an incident infection. Pooled logistic regression models showed that increased age was associated with lower risk (OR 0.98 per year, 95% CI 0.97 to 1.00, p=0.019), whereas increased number of non-household contacts (OR 1.10 per 10 contacts, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.20, p=0.024), attending events of at least 10 people (OR 1.26 per 10 events, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.50, p=0.007) and restaurant visits (OR 1.95 per 10 visits, 95% CI 1.42 to 2.68, p<0.001) were associated with significantly higher risk of incident SARS-CoV-2 infection.ConclusionsOur study identified three modifiable health behaviours, namely the number of non-household contacts, attending large gatherings and restaurant visits, which may meaningfully influence individual-level risk of contracting SARS-CoV-2.© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2021. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.

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