• Eloise A Marais, Rachel F Silvern, Alina Vodonos, Eleonore Dupin, Alfred S Bockarie, Loretta J Mickley, and Joel Schwartz.
• School of Physics and Astronomy , University of Leicester , Leicester , LE1 7RH , United Kingdom.
• Environ. Sci. Technol. 2019 Nov 19; 53 (22): 13524-13534.

AbstractAfrica has ambitious plans to address energy deficits and sustain economic growth with fossil fueled power plants. The continent is also experiencing faster population growth than anywhere else in the world that will lead to proliferation of vehicles. Here, we estimate air pollutant emissions in Africa from future (2030) electricity generation and transport. We find that annual emissions of two precursors of fine particles (PM2.5) hazardous to health, sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOx), approximately double by 2030 relative to 2012, increasing from 2.5 to 5.5 Tg SO2 and 1.5 to 2.8 Tg NOx. We embed these emissions in the GEOS-Chem model nested over the African continent to simulate ambient concentrations of PM2.5 and determine the burden of disease (excess deaths) attributable to exposure to future fossil fuel use. We calculate 48000 avoidable deaths in 2030 (95% confidence interval: 6000-88000), mostly in South Africa (10400), Nigeria (7500), and Malawi (2400), with 3-times higher mortality rates from power plants than transport. Sensitivity of the burden of disease to either population growth or air quality varies regionally and suggests that emission mitigation strategies would be most effective in Southern Africa, whereas population growth is the main driver everywhere else.

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