• Jean-Christian Borel, Julie Pelletier, Nellie Taleux, Amandine Briault, Nathalie Arnol, Christophe Pison, Renaud Tamisier, Jean-François Timsit, and Jean-Louis Pepin.
• AGIR à dom. Association, La Tronche, France Univ Grenoble Alpes, HP2 INSERM U1042, Grenoble, France.
• Thorax. 2015 Mar 1; 70 (3): 284-5.

ObjectiveTo assess whether daily variations in three parameters recorded by non-invasive ventilation (NIV) software (respiratory rate (RR), percentage of respiratory cycles triggered by the patient (%Trigg) and NIV daily use) predict the risk of exacerbation in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) treated by home NIV.MethodsPatients completed the EXACT-Pro questionnaire daily to detect exacerbations. The 25th and 75th percentiles of each 24 h NIV parameter were calculated and updated daily. For a given day, when the value of any parameter was >75th or <25th percentile, the day was marked as 'abnormal value' ('high value' >75th, 'low value' <25th). Stratified conditional logistic regressions estimated the risk of exacerbation when ≥2 days (for RR and %Trigg) or ≥3 days (for NIV use) out of five had an 'abnormal value'.ResultsSixty-four patients were included. Twenty-one exacerbations were detected and medically confirmed. The risk of exacerbation was increased when RR (OR 5.6, 95% CI 1.4 to 22.4) and %Trigg (OR 4.0, 95% CI 1.1 to 14.5) were considered as 'high value' on ≥2 days out of five.ConclusionsThis proof-of-concept study shows that daily variations in RR and %Trigg are predictors of an exacerbation.Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

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