• Muhammad Rashid and Hammad Ismail.
• Department of Biochemistry and Biotechnology, University of Gujrat-Hafiz Hayat Campus, Gujrat, Punjab, Pakistan.
• Medicine (Baltimore). 2021 Dec 10; 100 (49): e28193e28193.

BackgroundTo investigate the track of Gujrat, a District of Pakistan is very essential, either it follow-up World Health Organization (WHO) Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) elimination plan or not. This study aimed to find out HCV extinction analysis by time series forecast from District Gujrat, Pakistan.MethodsFrom January 1, 2016 to December 31, 2020 total n-5,111 numbers of HCV real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) tests were performed in Gujrat. For extinction analysis we used 2 different models, the first model was seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and the second linear regression (LR) model. First, we fitted both models then these fitted and valid models were used to predict future HCV percentage in District Gujrat.ResultsIn District Gujrat, the men HCV infected ratio is high with a higher viral load as compared with women, from year 2016 to 2020 male to female ratio was (53.75:53.19), (45.67:43.84), (39.67:39.36), (41.94:35.88), (37.70:31.38) respectively. HCV percentage is decreasing from 2016 to 2020 with an average of 4.98%. Our both fitted models SARIMAX (0,1,1)(0,1,1,6) at 95% confidence intervals and LR model Y = -0.379 X + 53.378 at 99% confidence intervals (P-value = .00) revealed that in June 2029 and in August 2027 respectively HCV percentage will be 0 from district Gujrat, Pakistan.ConclusionsThis study concluded that both SARIMA and LR models showed an effective modeling process for forecasting yearly HCV incidence. District Gujrat, Punjab, Pakistan is on track to achieve the WHO HCV elimination plan, before 2030 HCV will be extinct from this region.Copyright © 2021 the Author(s). Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc.

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