• Annals of surgery · May 2022

    A Parallel Pandemic: Increased Firearm Injuries at Five Northern California Trauma Centers During the COVID-19 Pandemic, an Interrupted Time-Series Analysis.

    • Zachary A Matthay, Rachael A Callcut, Amy M Kwok, Shahram Aarabi, Joseph D Forrester, Lucy Z Kornblith, and Northern California Research Consortium for Trauma & Acute Care Surgery Study Group .
    • Department of Surgery, Zuckerberg San Francisco General Hospital and the University of California, San Francisco; San Francisco, CA.
    • Ann. Surg. 2022 May 1; 275 (5): e725-e727.

    ObjectiveThis study aimed to characterize changes in firearm injuries at 5 level 1 trauma centers in Northern California in the 12 months following the start of the COVID-19 pandemic compared with the preceding 4 years, accounting for regional variations and seasonal trends.Summary And Background DataIncreased firearm injuries have been reported during the early peaks of the COVID-19 pandemic despite shelter-in-place restrictions. However, these data are overwhelmingly from singlecenter studies, during the initial phase of the pandemic prior to lifting of shelter-in-place restrictions, or do not account for seasonal trends.MethodsAn interrupted time-series analysis (ITSA) of all firearm injuries presenting to 5 adult level 1 trauma centers in Northern California was performed (January 2016to February 2021). ITSA modeled the association of the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic (March 2020) with monthly firearm injuries using the ordinary least-squares method, included month indicators to adjust for seasonality, and specified lags of up to 12 months to account for autocorrelation.ResultsPrior to the start of COVID-19, firearm injuries averaged (±SD) of 86 (±16) and were decreasing by 0.5/month (P < 0.01). The start of COVID- 19 (March 2020) was associated with an alarming increase of 39 firearm injuries/month (P < 0.01) followed by an ongoing rise of 3.5/mo (P < 0.01). This resulted in an average of 130 (±26) firearm injuries/month during the COVID-19 period and included 8 of the 10 highest monthly firearm injury rates in the past 5 years.ConclusionsThese data highlight an alarming escalation in firearm injuries in the 12 months following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in Northern California. Additional studies and resources are needed to better understand and address this parallel public health crisis.Copyright © 2021 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.

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