• Shengsheng Huang, Tuo Liang, Xuhua Sun, Liyi Chen, Jie Jiang, Jiarui Chen, Chong Liu, and Xinli Zhan.
• Spine and Osteopathy Ward, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University, Nanning, People's Republic of China.
• World Neurosurg. 2022 Mar 1; 159: e70-e78.

ObjectivePrevious studies have retrospectively analyzed the likely causes of cerebrospinal fluid leakage (CSFL) during cervical spine surgery and the management of CSFL after its occurrence. In the present study, we aimed to develop and validate a nomogram for the risk of CSFL in Chinese patients who had undergone cervical decompression and internal fixation (CDIF) surgery.MethodsWe performed a retrospective analysis of patients who had undergone CDIF surgery. Of the 1286 included patients, 54 were in the CSFL group and 1232 were in the normal group. The patients were randomly divided into training and validation tests. The risk assessment for CSFL included 21 characteristics. The feature selection for the CSFL model was optimized using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model in the training test. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to construct the model according to the selected characteristics. The clinical usefulness of the predictive model was assessed using the C-index, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis with identification and calibration.ResultsThe risk prediction nomogram included the diagnosis, revision surgery, ossification of the posterior longitudinal ligament, cervical instability, and a history of malignancy in the training test. The model demonstrated high predictive power, with a C-index of 0.914 (95% confidence interval, 0.876-0.951) and an area under the curve of 0.914. The results of the decision curve analysis demonstrated the clinical usefulness of the CSFL risk nomogram when the probability threshold for CSFL was 1%-62%.ConclusionsOur proposed nomogram for CSFL risk includes the diagnosis, revision surgery, ossification of the posterior longitudinal ligament, cervical instability, and a history of malignancy. The nomogram can be used to evaluate the risk of CSFL for patients undergoing CDIF surgery.Copyright © 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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