• Leonardo Ruiz-Casas, Gabriel Pedra, Anum Shaikh, Bethany Franks, Harpal Dhillon, João Diogo da Rocha Fernandes, Kamal Kant Mangla, Margarida Augusto, Jörn M Schattenberg, and Manuel Romero-Gómez.
• HCD Economics, Daresbury, Cheshire, United Kingdom.
• Medicine (Baltimore). 2021 Dec 17; 100 (50): e28165e28165.

AbstractOne fifth of patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) may progress to nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), which can increase the risk of cirrhosis, cancer, and death. To date, reported predictors of NASH progression have been heterogeneous.We identified determinants of fibrosis progression in patients with NASH in the United States using physician-reported data from the real-world Global Assessment of the Impact of NASH (GAIN) study, including demographics and clinical characteristics, NASH diagnostic information, fibrosis stage, comorbidities, and treatment. We developed a logistic regression model to assess the likelihood of fibrosis progression since diagnosis, controlling for sociodemographic and clinical variables. An iterative nested model selection approach using likelihood ratio test determined the final model.A total of 989 patients from the GAIN US cohort were included; 46% were women, 58% had biopsy-proven NAFLD, and 74% had fibrosis stage F0-F2 at diagnosis. The final multivariable model included age, years since diagnosis, sex, employment status, smoking status, obesity, fibrosis stage, diagnostic biopsy, Vitamin E, and liver transplant proposed at diagnosis. Odds of progression were 17% higher (odds ratio, 1.17 [95% CI: 1.11-1.23]; P < .001) with each year since NASH diagnosis, 41% lower (0.59 [0.38-0.90]; P = .016) for women than men, 131% higher (2.31 [1.30-4.03]; P = .004) for smokers versus non-smokers, and 89% higher (1.89 [1.26-2.86]; P = .002) with obesity. Odds of progression were also higher with part-time, retired, unemployed, and unable to work due to NASH status versus full-time employment, and when a liver transplant was proposed at diagnosis.Disease duration and severity, obesity, smoking, and lack of full-time employment were significant determinants of fibrosis progression. These findings can support clinical and health-policy decisions to improve NASH management in the US.Copyright © 2021 the Author(s). Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc.

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