• Sebastian Röhrich, Johannes Hofmanninger, Lukas Negrin, Georg Langs, and Helmut Prosch.
• Department of Biomedical Imaging and Image-guided Therapy, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria.
• Eur Radiol. 2021 Aug 1; 31 (8): 5443-5453.

ObjectivesAcute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) constitutes a major factor determining the clinical outcome in polytraumatized patients. Early prediction of ARDS is crucial for timely supportive therapy to reduce morbidity and mortality. The objective of this study was to develop and test a machine learning-based method for the early prediction of ARDS derived from the first computed tomography scan of polytraumatized patients after admission to the hospital.Materials And MethodsOne hundred twenty-three patients (86 male and 37 female, age 41.2 ± 16.4) with an injury severity score (ISS) of 16 or higher (31.9 ± 10.9) were prospectively included and received a CT scan within 1 h after the accident. The lungs, including air pockets and pleural effusions, were automatically segmented using a deep learning-based algorithm. Subsequently, we extracted radiomics features from within the lung and trained an ensemble of gradient boosted trees (GBT) to predict future ARDS.ResultsCross-validated ARDS prediction resulted in an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.79 for the radiomics score compared to 0.66 for ISS, and 0.68 for the abbreviated injury score of the thorax (AIS-thorax). Prediction using the radiomics score yielded an f1-score of 0.70 compared to 0.53 for ISS and 0.57 for AIS-thorax. The radiomics score achieved a sensitivity and specificity of 0.80 and 0.76.ConclusionsThis study proposes a radiomics-based algorithm for the prediction of ARDS in polytraumatized patients at the time of admission to hospital with an accuracy that competes and surpasses conventional scores despite the heterogeneous, and therefore more realistic, scanning protocols.Key Points• Early prediction of acute respiratory distress syndrome in polytraumatized patients is possible, even when using heterogenous data. • Radiomics-based prediction resulted in an area under the curve of 0.79 compared to 0.66 for the injury severity score, and 0.68 for the abbreviated injury score of the thorax. • Highlighting the most relevant lung regions for prediction facilitates the understanding of machine learning-based prediction.© 2021. The Author(s).

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