• Donald Courtney, Matthew G Davey, Brian M Moloney, Michael K Barry, Karl Sweeney, Ray P McLaughlin, Carmel M Malone, Aoife J Lowery, and Michael J Kerin.
• Department of Surgery, National University of Ireland, Galway, H91YR71, Republic of Ireland.
• Ir J Med Sci. 2022 Dec 1; 191 (6): 250125102501-2510.

BackgroundBreast cancer mortality has decreased due to improved screening and treatment options. Nevertheless, 25-30% of patients develop disease recurrence and die from the disease dissemination. Patients who develop metastatic disease represent a heterogeneous group and management plans are dependent on molecular subtype, disease burden and metastatic site.AimTo determine predictive clinicopathological factors of disease recurrence and their impact on survival in the molecular era.MethodsConsecutive patients who breast cancer developed recurrence at our tertiary referral centre between 2000 and 2015 were included. Clinicopathological and treatment data were assessed using descriptive statistics. Oncological outcome was assessed using Cox regression and Kaplan Meier analyses.ResultsTwo hundred sixty-five consecutive patients who developed breast cancer recurrence were included; median age at metastasis was 59.3 years (range 27-87 years), and median time to recurrence (TTR) was 47.7 ± 38.5 months (range 3.0-194.3 months). Survival was 24.2% (64/265) 53.2% were luminal A (LABC) (141/265), 18.5% were luminal B (LBBC) (49/265), 18.5% were triple negative (TNBC) (49/265), and 9.8% were human epidermal growth factor receptor-2 overexpressing (HER2 +) (26/265). TTR for patients with LABC was 56.0 ± 41.3 months, LBBC was 48.4 ± 41.1 months, TNBC was 26.9 ± 28.5 months and HER2 + was 34.3 ± 21.8 months. Increased grade (P < 0.001), Nottingham Prognostic Indices (P < 0.001), TNBC (P < 0.001), HER2 + subtype (P < 0.001) and receiving targeted therapy (P = 0.006) predicted shorted TTR. Estrogen receptor positivity (P < 0.001), progesterone receptor positivity (P = 0.010), invasive lobular carcinoma (P = 0.009) and receiving endocrine therapy (P = 0.001) predicted longer TTR.ConclusionReadily available clinicopathological factors predict risk of metastatic dissemination. Developing a tailored program to identify patients at risk of recurrence is crucial in controlling metastatic dissemination of breast cancer.© 2022. The Author(s).

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