• Arom Choi, Incheol Park, Hye Sun Lee, Jinseok Chung, Min Joung Kim, and Yoo Seok Park.
• Department of Emergency Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
• Ann. Med. 2022 Dec 1; 54 (1): 599-609.

IntroductionFebrile neutropenia (FN) is one of the major complications with high mortality rates in cancer patients undergoing chemotherapy. The Multinational Association for Supportive Care in Cancer (MASCC) risk-index score has limited applicability for routine use in the emergency department (ED). This study aimed to develop simplified new nomograms that can predict 28-day mortality and the development of serious medical complications in patients with FN by using a combination of complete blood count (CBC) parameters with quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA).MethodsIn this retrospective observational study, various models comprising qSOFA score and individual CBC parameters (red cell distribution width, delta neutrophil index, mean platelet volume (MPV)) were evaluated for association with outcomes by a multivariate logistic analysis. Subsequently, nomograms were developed for outcome prediction. The primary outcome was mortality at 28 days from ED presentation; the secondary outcome was the development of serious medical complications.ResultsA total of 378 patients were included. Among the CBC parameters, only MPV was significantly associated with 28-day mortality and serious medical complications in patients with FN. The nomogram developed to predict 28-day mortality and serious medical complications showed good discrimination with area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) values of 0.729 and 0.862 (95% CI, 0.780-0.943), respectively, which were not different from those of the MASCC score (0.814, 95% CI, 0.705-0.922; p = .07 and 0.921, 95% CI, 0.863-0.979; p = .11, respectively) in the validation set. The calibration of both nomograms demonstrated good agreement in the validation set.ConclusionIn this study, a novel prognostic nomogram using qSOFA score and MPV to identify cancer patients with FN with high risk of 28-day mortality and serious medical complications was verified and validated. Prompt management of fatal complications of FN can be possible through early prediction of poor outcomes with these new nomograms.KEY MESSAGESAmong the evaluated CBC parameters, only mean platelet volume was associated with 28-day mortality and serious medical complications in cancer patients with febrile neutropenia.A novel and rapid prognostic nomogram was developed using quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score and mean platelet volume to identify cancer patients with febrile neutropenia having high risk of 28-day mortality and serious medical complications.The nomogram developed to predict 28-day mortality and serious medical complications in patients with febrile neutropenia showed good discrimination and provides rapid patient evaluation that is especially applicable in the emergency department.

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