• Lotte Elton.
• Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Life Course and Population Sciences, King's College London, London, UK.
• J Eval Clin Pract. 2022 Oct 1; 28 (5): 814820814-820.

AbstractSome have questioned the extent of medical intervention at the end of people's lives, arguing that we often intervene in the dying process in ways which are harmful, inappropriate, or undignified. In this paper, I argue that over-treatment of dying is a function of the way in which clinicians manage epistemic risk-the risk of being wrong. When making any scientific decision-whether making inferences from empirical data, or determining a plan for medical treatment-there is always a degree of uncertainty: in other words, there is always a possibility we make the wrong decision. As philosophers of science such as Justin Biddle have argued, there is no way to resolve epistemic risk without weighing up the consequences of being wrong. This requires us to draw upon other, non-epistemic considerations, like social and ideological values; as such, questions of epistemic risk cannot be answered solely with reference to epistemic considerations such as evidence. In this paper, I explore how epistemic risk arises in end-of-life care, highlighting how clinicians face epistemic risk when diagnosing patients as dying and when determining whether a particular treatment is futile. I argue that there is no clear cut-off between reversible and irreversible illness, nor between useful and futile treatment. Clinicians who diagnose a patient as dying thus risk failing to provide treatment which could be beneficial; conversely, clinicians who determine that a patient has a potentially reversible illness risk subjecting them to futile treatment that may be painful or distressing. Having outlined where and how epistemic risk arises in end-of-life care, I turn my attention to the values and norms which shape clinicians' management of epistemic risk. I highlight how societal attitudes towards death, the medicalisation of dying, and the practice of defensive medicine all contribute to clinicians erring on one side of epistemic caution, minimising the risk that they miss or fail to treat illness. By applying the concept of epistemic risk to end-of-life care, I offer a novel lens through which to view medical decision-making in dying patients.© 2022 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

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