• Ling Lin, Qing Song, Wei Cheng, Cong Liu, Yi-Yang Zhao, Jia-Xi Duan, Jing Li, Dan Liu, Xin Li, Yan Chen, Shan Cai, and Ping Chen.
• Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, the Second Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha, Hunan, China.
• Ann. Med. 2022 Dec 1; 54 (1): 875-885.

PurposeOur study aimed to compare the predictive value of the COPD Assessment Test (CAT) score at baseline and short-term change in CAT for future exacerbations in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients.MethodsThis was a multicentre prospective study. Patients with COPD were recruited into the study and followed up for one year. CAT score and exacerbation in the previous year were collected at baseline. Change in CAT was defined as CAT score changing between baseline and the 6-month follow-up. Exacerbation was recorded during the one-year follow-up from 0th to 12th month.ResultA total of 536 patients were enrolled for final analysis. The mean baseline CAT score was 14.5 ± 6.6 and the median (IQR) change in CAT was -2 (8). On Cox regression analysis, baseline CAT score, change in CAT and history of exacerbation were independent risk factors for exacerbation in the one-year follow-up. Compared with the r value of correlation between baseline CAT score and frequency of exacerbations during the one-year follow-up (r = 0.286, p < .001), that correlation between the change in CAT and frequency of exacerbations during follow-up was higher (r = 0.421, p < .001). The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves showed that change in CAT had a better predictive capacity for future exacerbation than baseline CAT (0.789 versus 0.609, p = .001). The ROC showed that change in CAT also had a better predictive capacity for future exacerbation than exacerbation in the previous year (0.789 versus 0.689, p = .011).ConclusionThe correlation between baseline CAT score and future exacerbation was weak, however, the correlation between change in CAT and future exacerbation was moderate. Change in CAT in the short term had a better predictive value for future exacerbations of COPD than baseline CAT and exacerbation in the previous year.

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