• Leticia Fresco, Gina Osorio, Míriam Carbó, Daniel N Marco, Julia García-Gozalbes, Lourdes Artajona, Dora Sempertegui, Milagrosa Perea, Daniela Piñango, M ª Del Mar Ortega Romero, and Grupo de Trabajo sobre la atención de la COVID-19 en Urgencias (COVID19-URG).
• Área de Urgencias, Hospital Clínic de Barcelona, España.
• Emergencias. 2022 Jun 1; 34 (3): 196-203.

ObjectivesTo validate a previously described hospital emergency department risk model to predict mortality in patients with COVID-19.Material And MethodsProspective observational noninterventional study. Patients aged over 18 years diagnosed with COVID-19 were included between December 1, 2020, and February 28, 2021. We calculated a risk score for each patient based on age 50 years (2 points) plus 1 point each for the presence of the following predictors: Barthel index 90 points, altered level of consciousness, ratio of arterial oxygen saturation to fraction of inspired oxygen 400, abnormal breath sounds, platelet concentration 100 × 109/L, C reactive protein level 5 mg/dL, and glomerular filtration rate 45 mL/min. The dependent variable was 30-day mortality. We assessed the score's performance with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).ResultsThe validation cohort included 1223 patients. After a median follow-up of 80 days, 143 patients had died; 901 patients were classified as having low risk (score, 4 points), 270 as intermediate risk (5-6 points), and 52 as high risk ( 7 points). Thirty-day mortality rates at each risk level were 2.8%, 22.5%, and 65.4%, respectively. The AUC for the score was 0.883; for risk categorization, the AUC was 0.818.ConclusionThe risk score described is useful for stratifying risk for mortality in patients with COVID-19 who come to a tertiary-care hospital emergency department.

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