• Kyung Duk Min and Sung Il Cho.
• Department of Public Health Science, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea.
• J. Korean Med. Sci. 2018 Mar 19; 33 (12): e98.

BackgroundThe incidence rate of scrub typhus has been increasing in the Republic of Korea. Previous studies have suggested that this trend may have resulted from the effects of climate change on the transmission dynamics among vectors and hosts, but a clear explanation of the process is still lacking. In this study, we applied mathematical models to explore the potential factors that influence the epidemiology of tsutsugamushi disease.MethodsWe developed mathematical models of ordinary differential equations including human, rodent and mite groups. Two models, including simple and complex models, were developed, and all parameters employed in the models were adopted from previous articles that represent epidemiological situations in the Republic of Korea.ResultsThe simulation results showed that the force of infection at the equilibrium state under the simple model was 0.236 (per 100,000 person-months), and that in the complex model was 26.796 (per 100,000 person-months). Sensitivity analyses indicated that the most influential parameters were rodent and mite populations and contact rate between them for the simple model, and trans-ovarian transmission for the complex model. In both models, contact rate between humans and mites is more influential than morality rate of rodent and mite group.ConclusionThe results indicate that the effect of controlling either rodents or mites could be limited, and reducing the contact rate between humans and mites is more practical and effective strategy. However, the current level of control would be insufficient relative to the growing mite population.© 2018 The Korean Academy of Medical Sciences.

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