• Matthew G Davey, Aoife J Lowery, and Michael J Kerin.
• Department of Surgery, The Lambe Institute for Translational Research, National University of Ireland, Galway, H91YR71, Ireland. mattgdavey1@gmail.com.
• Ir J Med Sci. 2023 Aug 1; 192 (4): 159516001595-1600.

IntroductionCurrent standard of care for patients diagnosed with "low-risk" ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) involves surgical resection. Ongoing phase III clinical trials are hoping to establish the oncological safety of active surveillance (AS) in managing "low-risk" DCIS.AimsTo evaluate the oncological safety of AS versus surgery for "low-risk" DCIS.MethodsA systematic review was performed in accordance with PRISMA guidelines. Survival outcomes were expressed as dichotomous variables and reported as odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) using the Mantel-Haenszel method.ResultsFour studies including 9626 patients were included, 3.9% of which were managed using AS (374/9626) and 96.1% with surgery (9252/9626). The mean age of included patients was 50.3 years (range: 30-99 years) and mean follow-up was 6.1 years. Invasive cancer detection after surgery and AS were similar (OR: 0.93, 95% CI: 0.41-2.11, P = 0.860, heterogeneity (I2) = 0%). At 5 years, BCSS (surgery 99.5% vs. AS 98.7%, P = 0.116) and OS (surgery 95.8% vs. AS 95.7%, P = 0.876) were similar for both groups. At 10 years, BCSS (surgery 98.7% vs. AS 98.6%, P = 0.789) and OS (surgery 87.9% vs. AS 90.9%, P = 0.183) were similar for both groups. Overall, 10-year OS outcomes were similar for both management strategies (OR: 0.32, 95% CI: 0.02-6.42, P = 0.460, I2 = 69%).ConclusionThis study outlines the provisional oncological safety of AS for cases of "low-risk" DCIS. While survival outcomes were comparable for both management strategies, ratification of these results in the ongoing phase III clinical trials is still required prior to changes to current management strategies.Prospero RegistrationCRD42022313241.© 2022. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Royal Academy of Medicine in Ireland.

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