• Andrey I Yaroshetskiy, Zamira M Merzhoeva, Natalia A Tsareva, Natalia V Trushenko, Galia S Nuralieva, Vasily D Konanykhin, Anna P Krasnoshchekova, and Sergey N Avdeev.
• Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University (Sechenov University), Moscow, Russia. dr.intensivist@gmail.com.
• BMC Anesthesiol. 2022 Oct 1; 22 (1): 307.

BackgroundData on the efficacy of non-invasive ventilation (NIV) after progression of respiratory failure in patients who have already received oxygen therapy, or CPAP outside ICU is limited. The study aimed to find predictors of NIV failure based on breathing pattern, gas exchange, and accessory respiratory muscles evaluation in patients who progressed to moderate-to-severe COVID-19 ARDS.MethodsThis was a prospective observational study in patients with moderate-to-severe COVID-19-ARDS on NIV (n = 80) admitted to COVID-ICU of Sechenov University. The combined success rate for conventional oxygen and CPAP outside ICU was 78.6% (440 of 560 patients). The primary endpoints were intubation rate and mortality. We measured respiratory rate, exhaled tidal volume (Vte), mean peak inspiratory flow (PIF), inspiratory time (Ti), PaO2, SpO2, end-tidal carbon dioxide (PETCO2), and Patrick score, and calculated ROX index, PaO2/FiO2, ventilatory ratio, and alveolar dead space (Vdalv/Vt) on Days 1, 3, 5, 7, 10, and 14. For all significant differences between NIV success and failure groups in measured data, we performed ROC analysis.ResultsNIV failure rate in ICU after deterioration of respiratory failure outside ICU was 71.3% (n = 57). Patients with the subsequent NIV failure were older at inclusion, more frail, had longer duration of disease before ICU admission, and higher rate of CPAP use outside ICU. ROC-analysis revealed that the following respiratory parameters after 48 h of NIV can serve as a predictors for NIV failure in moderate-to-severe COVID-19-associated ARDS: PaO2/FiO2 < 112 mmHg (AUROC 0.90 (0.93-0.97), p < 0.0001); PETCO2 < 19.5 mmHg (AUROC 0.84 (0.73-0.94), p < 0.0001); VDalv/VT > 0.43 (AUROC 0.78 (0.68-0.90), p < 0.0001); ROX-index < 5.02 (AUROC 0.89 (0.81-0.97), p < 0.0001); Patrick score > 2 points (AUROC 0.87 (0.78-0.96), p = 0.006).ConclusionIn patients who progressed to moderate-to-severe COVID-19-ARDS probability of NIV success rate was about 1/3. Prediction of the NIV failure can be made after 48 h based on ROX index < 5.02, PaO2/FiO2 < 112 mmHg, PETCO2 < 19.5 mmHg, and Patrick score >  = 2.Trial RegistrationClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT04667923 , registered on 16/12/2020.© 2022. The Author(s).

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